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Strategic patience

Strategic patience is the delicate balance between knowing when to act and when to wait. It’s not passively sitting back it’s intentional waiting while working the next move. The best businesses resist the urge of instant gratification, opting to lay solid foundations for sustainable growth.

Strategic patience demands clarity of vision, confidence in the strategy, and the discipline to ignore noise. It’s built on sharp insight, constant preparation, and the nerve to hold position while others chase distractions.

You don’t wait because you’re unsure—but because you're playing a longer, smarter game.

Photo: Tottori, Japan 

Oil won’t run the world forever

It’s easy to talk about accelerating the energy transition — until trade policy slams the brakes.

Oil won’t run the world forever. One day soon, it won’t even run itself. Time for a Malthusian swerve!?

A recent Planet Money x Radiolab episode resurfaced a truth we often ignore: oil and gas are depleting — and so is the economic model built around them.

In 1972, MIT’s Limits to Growth report warned that resource use would peak and then collapse if left unchecked.

Back then, the world was consuming ~50 million barrels of oil per day.

Today, it's 100 million+.

Yet new discoveries keep falling.

In the 2010s, we found half as much oil as we did in the 2000s.

However, 2052 might be the day we run out of oil !!

By 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global demand for fossil fuels will drop by 75% in a net-zero scenario, with oil and gas production peaking much sooner.

The Malthusian swerve , a term coined in the episode, is coming — and this time, it’s clean energy.

Solar and wind now make up 80% of new global power capacity.

Battery prices have fallen by 89% in a decade.

And investment in clean energy is set to surpass $2 trillion this year — doubling fossil fuels.

This isn’t just an energy transition.

It’s a strategic pivot from scarcity to abundance, from extraction to regeneration.

Because the real risk isn't running out of oil. It's running out of time to build what comes next.

Listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/gWNF3ukB

Tariffs

It’s easy to talk about accelerating the energy transition — until trade policy slams the brakes.

With Trump’s latest tariffs now in play, clean energy just got more expensive, more uncertain, and more complicated — again.

We’ve seen trade barriers before. But this round hits deeper global supply chains will feel the strain and one of the biggest market in the world, the U.S., just became harder to navigate.

That matters to all of us. Clean energy is global by design. No single country can decarbonize alone — not when the materials, components, and expertise are spread across continents.

And yet, here we are. Trade policy working against climate policy.

“It takes 3,000 components to build a transformer. It only takes one missing part to shut the whole thing down.”

This isn’t about price hikes alone. It’s about delays. Missed targets. Slower innovation. And lost time — the one thing we don’t have in this transition.

Still, disruption forces clarity.

It’s a chance to build more resilient supply chains. To invest locally, without turning inward.

We need smarter policy. One that sees clean energy not as a bargaining chip, but as the path forward. 

Hire for attitue, Train for skill

The best aren’t the ones with all the answers—they’re the ones who never stop asking questions.

Real innovation doesn’t come from experience alone. It comes from those who challenge assumptions, think differently, and aren’t weighed down by “how things have always been done.” As DeepSeek’s CEO put it, “real breakthroughs come from people without baggage.”

Hire for attitude. Train for skill. Because in a world that’s constantly changing, curiosity beats certainty every time.

Reality Check

BlackRock’s $4.8B Renewable Power Fund III just took a major hit—two investments, Northvolt and SolarZero, wiped out its returns, turning an 11.5% IRR into a negative.

This isn’t just about two companies faltering. It’s a reality check for climate tech investing:

- Diversification isn’t enough when risks are interconnected.

- Capital without hands-on expertise won’t cut it.

- Ignoring local market dynamics can be costly.

The energy transition is complex. To succeed, we need smarter strategies, not just bigger bets.

Source: https://lnkd.in/gYYF5TgS 

Strategy

Strategy, at its core, is the art of turning the impossible into the possible. It is the deliberate act of dismantling obstacles, expanding the narrow boundaries of reality, and crafting solutions that once seemed unattainable.

A true strategist possesses both the vision and the courage to redefine what is possible when faced with the impossible.

Photo: Maruyama Park, Sapporo, Hokkaido 

US Elections

The United States, with only about 4% of the world’s population, contributes close to 24% of global GDP and is responsible for nearly 15% of global carbon emissions. These figures highlight America's outsized influence and underscore the pivotal role it plays on the global climate stage. As we approach the U.S. presidential election, this influence is consequential, with global implications for EnergyPolicy and ClimateProgress.

A Trump administration has vowed to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the landmark climate law that Democrats aim to strengthen. Yet, with a closely divided Congress and the economic momentum behind clean energy investments in Republican districts, the IRA may be shielded from drastic changes. Both parties, despite ideological differences, seem to embrace a version of an “all-of-the-above” approach—balancing fossil fuels with CleanEnergy investments.

This election, however, is about more than just domestic policy. With COP29 around the corner in Baku, the world is watching. U.S. leadership, especially in financing global climate initiatives, has historically set the tone for international action. If U.S. pulls back, it risks easing the pressure on other countries to make bold commitments to ClimateAction.

Under a Harris administration, we would likely see continuity in climate cooperation efforts, particularly in balancing US China relations. A Trump administration, however, could reorient policies to focus on economic growth alone, potentially stalling U.S. commitments to net-zero goals.

Regardless of the outcome, BloombergNEF underscores that to meet net-zero by 2050, U.S. annual investment in the EnergyTransition must triple by 2030 and keep growing. America's leadership on climate remains critical. This election will shape not only America’s future but the global path toward a SustainablePlanet. 

Flexibility is Key

In a world that's constantly changing, long-term strategies can quickly become outdated. Over the past five years, we've seen global upheavals—COVID, wars, natural disasters—that have disrupted even the most well-thought-out plans.

The key lesson learned? Flexibility is key. Instead of detailed, long-term plans, focus on a broad and simple vision of where you want to go—whether as an individual or an organization.

Keep your plans tactical, adaptable, and ready for change. Whether it’s in your personal life or in business, it's okay to change course or even adjust your goals. The important thing is to keep moving forward with a clear sense of direction.

Start, stay flexible, and remember—success in today's world is about adaptability.

Photo: Emergent strategy is an action model coined by Henry Mintzberg